Background
In episode six of season two of Seinfeld, “The Statue”, Elaine has a conversation with Rava that is framed as minor joke in the episode, but is actually very interesting. Elaine confronts Rava about a statue going missing from Jerry’s apartment right after Rava’s boyfriend Ray cleans it, then an identical one showing up at Ray’s apartment. Rava waives it off as merely a coincidence. Elaine says it a pretty big coincidence, but Rava rebuts that there are no big or small coincidences, only coincidences. Elaine insists there ARE big and small coincidences. Elaine is correct.Definition
The term “coincidence” has multiple definitions, but the relevant ones here are:- A sequence of events that although accidental seems to have been planned or arranged.
- Of events, the appearance of a meaningful connection when there is none.
Explanation
What makes a coincidence big or small comes down to probability. If something unexpected is likely, then it’s a small coincidence, but it’s unlikely, then it’s a big coincidence.Example
Imagine an American man named Tom who lives in an apartment in New York City. He finds out that the name of the man who just moved in next door is also named Tom. Okay, that’s a coincidence, but hardly that unusual, it’s a small coincidence. Now imagine Tom moves to a small farming village in China. One day, a man moves in next door and turns out to be an American man named Tom. Statistically, that someone moving in there would be an American, let alone one named Tom, let alone two, is extremely unlikely, and thus, a big coincidence.As usual, it comes down to maths.
