{"id":800,"date":"2015-12-23T15:31:17","date_gmt":"2015-12-23T20:31:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/synetech.ddns.net\/blogs\/smarticles\/?p=800"},"modified":"2025-05-01T11:34:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:34:10","slug":"no-there-are-big-and-small-coincidences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/synetech.ddns.net\/blogs\/smarticles\/2015\/12\/23\/no-there-are-big-and-small-coincidences\/","title":{"rendered":"No, there ARE big and small coincidences"},"content":{"rendered":"

Background<\/h2>\r\nIn episode six of season two of Seinfeld<\/em>, \u201cThe Statue\u201d, Elaine has a conversation with Rava that is framed as minor joke in the episode, but is actually very interesting.\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\nElaine confronts Rava about a statue going missing from Jerry’s apartment right after Rava’s boyfriend Ray cleans it, then an identical one showing up at Ray’s apartment. Rava waives it off as merely a coincidence. Elaine says it a pretty big coincidence, but Rava rebuts that there are no big or small coincidences, only coincidences. Elaine insists there ARE big and small coincidences.\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\nElaine is correct.\r\n\r\n

Definition<\/h2>\r\nThe term \u201ccoincidence\u201d has multiple definitions, but the relevant ones here are:\r\n\r\n
    \r\n\t
  • A sequence of events that although accidental seems to have been planned or arranged.<\/li>\r\n\t
  • Of events, the appearance of a meaningful connection when there is none.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n

    Explanation<\/h2>\r\nWhat makes a coincidence big or small comes down to probability. If something unexpected is likely, then it’s a small coincidence, but it’s unlikely, then it’s a big coincidence.\r\n\r\n

    Example<\/h2>\r\nImagine an American man named Tom who lives in an apartment in New York City. He finds out that the name of the man who just moved in next door is also named Tom. Okay, that’s a coincidence, but hardly that unusual, it’s a small coincidence.\r\n\r\n

    \r\n\r\nNow imagine Tom moves to a small farming village in China. One day, a man moves in next door and turns out to be an American man named Tom, and they’re both from Wamsutter, Wyoming, population 203. Statistically, that someone moving there would be an American, let alone named Tom, let alone from that tiny town, let alone TWO, is extremely unlikely, and thus, a big coincidence.\r\n\r\n


    \r\n\r\nAs usual, it comes down to maths.\r\n\r\n


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